For weeks, the economic forecasts have told us demand for San Francisco housing should be going down, especially in the condo market, the softest and the most vulnerable sector.

After all, it’s summer, when SF housing often takes a dip, and on top of that inflation is high, most other commodities are going down, and the status quo for SF homes has been just plain unreasonable for years on end anyway.

On paper, it all makes sense. But is it happening?

As usual, we’ll take the Richmond as our petri dish, looking at just the condo market for the time being. Out of 17 condo units currently for sale in and around the Richmond, the median asking price is $1.5 million, compared to the median sale price of about $1.43 million on all condos sold so far this year.

But for this we’re not really interested in the price so much as in the number of days on the market; for condos up for sale right now that median is 34, with totals ranging from just one all the way up to 191.

For comparison, the condos sold so far this year–82 in all–only took about 12 days to find a buyer. (We know it risks diluting the potency of the phrase when we’re compelled to say it this often, but that number is absolutely nuts, by the way.)

So it definitely looks like condo sales are slowing based just on that. Here’s the thing though: For just June and July thus far, the median days on the market is still only 13 for units sold; so those homes that are selling are selling pretty much just as quickly as they have all along.

And here’s the catch: Since January, condos listed in and around the Richmond that ended up cancelled without a sale were on the market for a median of, wait for it, 34 days.

That means we’re right on the brink here for these kinds of homes: Will these condos listed right now end up disappearing (probably to pop up again after the summer is over and the market starts heating up again) and continue the same trends we’ve had all year so far?

Or will they stick it out, possibly drop their prices, and start really driving down some of the indicators? As usual, nothing really tells us but more time.

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