Alexander Clark Real Estate

‘The Front Steps’: Homes (Finally?) Dip In June–But Only June

Half the year is somehow gone, so let’s indulge in our favorite past time with a good, old-fashioned housing data salon.

If you head over to our regular Front Steps blog in the coming days you’ll get our rundown of every major neighborhood in San Francisco, but for now let’s look at just how the Richmond performed since January.

In all, we’ve seen 201 publicly listed homes sell in the neighborhood; mind you this includes nearby areas like Lake Street and Sea Cliff, where homes list and sell for considerably more on average than in the Richmond proper.

For comparison, this time last year it was 204–so not a statistically significant decline in terms of volume. The speed of these sales is also unchanged from 2021; in both years, the average number of days on the market was 12. No surprise, really, since it’s almost impossible to sell much faster than that…

What about prices? Well, the median Richmond home thus far in 2022 ran about $1.82 million, and the mean average was $2.2 million. Both of those are up dramatically year over year, from $1.5 million and $1.73 million.

Also, the number of publicly listed homes that were cancelled or expired without a sale is down year over year so far, and this time the numbers are significant: Thus far in 2022 it’s 20, whereas this time last year it was 28.

So, by and large, good news for anyone selling a Richmond home, and encouraging news for anyone sitting on a Richmond home they hope to sell for big money down the line.

However, some housing analysts cautioned us in the past month or two that a big dip is already here, disguised by the number of yet-unsold homes in SF.

When these eventually sell down the line after some price cuts, they’ll finally push price points and days-on-market metrics down. But only after they sell of course, so for now it’s an invisible slump.

Well that does seem to make sense, but can we see it? It’s true that those Richmond homes listed right now–50 in all–have on average been on the market longer–27 days right now. The median list price as of now is $1.84 million.

How about just for the 29 neighborhood homes that sold in June, did we see a dip start to manifest there? Days on market for just the month was 14, and closed price was more than $1.71M–so yes, a little bit slower than the rest of the year so far.

Last June, the Richmond saw 46 homes move in 11 days, so that at least is a concrete decline year over year. But 2021 was the busiest June the neighborhood has seen in nearly a decade–for every other year since 2012, the June we’ve just had was pretty much average.

Check back next week and we can see how the Richmond compared to every other SF neighborhood–and which ones came out on top for the first half of the year.

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